Evolution Hoedown

Ok I’m starting a new thread so it doesn’t get lost. Let’s stay on the (ick) evolution train here for a sec. Kelly admonished me for wanting to believe that Americans weren’t morons. Fair enough, but when I questioned the accuracy of the Gallup poll he cited, I think he missed my point.

I agree with you, bub. And it’s pretty friggin likely that I think less of Americans than even you. Not a contest, however, that I’d really want to engage in.

It’s true. I really do want to believe that we as a species deserve thumbs and eyes on the front, not sides, of our heads. But I daily see that it is a vain desire.

My main point, however poorly illustrated, was that Gallup polls are shit.

The Gallup poll that was cited in the Nat. Geo. article Kelly cited surveyed 1,016 people by telephone in February 2001. That’s 1,016 people in a country with a current population of 294,784,652. To be fair, that’s a current number. The 2000 census put us at 281,421,906. So, being generous, Gallup surveyed .000036 of the population at the time. According to Gallup, that creates only a 3% margin of error. But not if you look at all the factors.

Participants were selected at random—from a machine that direct-dials phone numbers from across the country. This allows it to include both listed and unlisted numbers. Once a household answers, they ask for someone who is over 18 and willing to be surveyed.

While this does allow for what is technically a random sampling, it doesn’t necessarily allow for a REPRESENTATIVE sampling—especially not anymore. Many people ages 18-35—especially those in the demographic that includes those who would respond that they believe Darwin was right—no longer have land lines—they have cell phones. Most of these cell phone numbers are not on direct-dial lists, as they don’t go through the primary phone service provider in an area. Granted, this is a trend that is on the rise at present—4 years after the poll. But it’s been a trend since the late 1990s.

Additionally—who are the people who are home to receive calls, and willing to take the time for a survey, assuming they do have a land line? For the most part, you will find retirees and stay-at-home parents—segments of the population that, typically, lean to the conservative side of the spectrum.

Language also plays a part in the outcome of polls. Answers to questions can be determined by the way the questions are asked. You’ll find the most egregious of these in “push polls,” popularized by Karl Rove and the evil genius Lee Atwater. These are the kinds of questions that ask, “Do you agree with a woman’s right to murder her unborn child?”

Typically, Gallup doesn’t ask those kinds of loaded questions. But even in their poll, about a quarter of those who replied that they were creationists indicated that they agreed that humans developed over a period of time. And, of those who claimed “evolution,” about a quarter said that they felt God had some hand in the process. Wording is everything, especially when you’re dealing nuances of understanding and belief.

All of this said, Creationists are whacked. And there are way too many of them in what is, for the moment, the top of the heap of the free world.

It’s a reality we’re going to have to deal with, yes. But it’s not as cut-and-dried as the Gallup numbers make it seem. I agree with Kelly, that we’ve got our work cut out for us. Logical arguments don’t work when you’re talking ideology.

And that’s probably actually our in. Fuck logic. Fuck trying to convince. Fuck reasoned argument, and the equanimity that the Left embodies. Let’s circle the wagons that are carrying people who can read, and protect ourselves.

In The Stranger last week, they argued that it’s not blue and red states, it’s blue cities and red ruralities. It IS going to be a culture war. Cities have everything that reasoned people want. We’ve walled them before, let’s wall them again. Cut off the ruralities and they’ll wither like the hollow dreams they are.

I wish I were joking.