Surprise, it's October!
Excellent article at The Gadflyer about the nature of October Surprises:
There are two different types of October Surprise stories: leaks from partisans, of which the press is particularly skeptical; and stories a news organization gets itself that might seem too explosive to run in the final days. The difference between the two is that the former are usually offered up too late to be verified whereas the latter typically involve a good deal of reporting.The article also analyzes how the media deals with October Surprise news. While of sociological interest, the article doesn't point out the obvious: At this point, an October Surprise ain't going to do shit.
There are jokes on The Daily Show and other places that undecided voters are idiots. I don't believe that to be the case. I believe, with no research to back this up (typical blogger), that undecided voters deserve more credit. They are deciding which issues are the most important to them, whether it be terrorism or the economy. They want to make an informed decision, and there is very little real information in the hard spin of media coverage. Perhaps, also, they see, as South Park put it last night, a choice between a douchebag and and a turd sandwich.
If anything, however, undecided voters are going to see through October Surprise-style attacks when so much is on the line. If they've waited this long to make a decision, they aren't stupid. They're thinking harder than the rest of us, or it takes them longer to think, or they started thinking about this later than we did. I, for one, love undecided voters, especially right now, since they usually break for the challenger*.
*I'm tearing through my newsreader trying to find an article that supports this. I've read this tidbit several times, but I'd like to reference it.
3 Comments:
If you're undecided, you're a cockmunch. Undecided = cockmunch. Period. It's high time we start holding people accountable for being cockmunches. If you're an American it is your civic fucking duty to pick up a newspaper once in a while. It's not media's job to make you cognizant of the world around you – it's your job…cockmunch. If someone is undecided because they literally cannot make up their mind, well…they're still a cockmunch. Shit or get off the pot. Got it Paco? Life is about making decisions. Make one.
Right wing bloggers have their knickers in knots over this "terrorist threat" business (via Drudge). Among the many things that they fail to realize is that this is – even according to their own narratives – a media story. It's a story about bias, CBS, ABC, etc. It's not an election story. October Surprise my ass. The laughable Terror Alert system cooked up by Tom Ridge and the Bush White House played itself out a loooong time ago. A video, an audio tape, a vague "sense" of threat will not effect the election for shit. Sure, hopefully there are people who are constantly assessing and tracking down potential threats – but that ought to be a given…in any administration. Fuckin' Drudge can kiss the crack of my ass. And to the right wingers: keep on slappin' around the media boys. While you're busy with that, we'll just be eviscerating your pinch-eyed candidate.
"Based on Alan Abramowitz's average of traditional nationwide polls (i.e., no partisan polls, no robopolls), Kerry will win according to the Likely Voter samples if the undecideds break for the challenger by a margin of 2.04347826 to 1 or greater (which is a bit more than the historic 2:1 ratio) or according to the Registered Voter samples if the undecideds break for the challenger by a margin of 1.55 to 1 or greater, (which is less than the historic 2:1 ratio). In addition, without assigning undecideds, the averages for both RVs and LVs both show the Nader vote as larger than the Bush-Kerry gap. Thanks a lot!"
source: http://yglesias.typepad.com/matthew/2004/10/undecideds_brea.html
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