Well, I was close, but I certainly deserve no cigar.

I got some stuff right. I projected the correct winner. I said that Gephardt's campaign would be damaged.

But beyond that, whew! Was I wrong!

I knew nothing about the Kucinich/Edwards deal. If you haven't heard, supposedly the Edwards camp struck a deal with Kucinich's camp, that when Kucinich was deemed not viable at a caucus, the Kucinich supporters would join the Edwards supporters. I'm not sure if that's what really happened; plenty of Google News searching turned up nothing, and the only reference I can find about it is this Daily Kos post where Tom Schaller says it was "real." I don't know how much this supposed horse-trade affected Edwards' second-place finish, but I would presume it affected it very little. Edwards came in second because he ran a positive campaign in Iowa. Dean and Gephardt bitchslapped each other into distant third and fourth.

Dean has also had a tough few weeks. "You sit down. You've had your say, and now I'm gonna have my say." No minorities in his Vermont cabinet. And it certainly didn't help that last night, his let's-go-get-'em-in-New-Hampshire speech sounded like Randy Savage encouraging you to Snap into a Slim Jim. That angry candidate thing that Salon argued was a myth? How much of a myth is it?

I still support Dean because of the issues, because of his record, because he can give George Bush a serious run for his money, and because his campaign and his platform should define the Democratic party. I still think Dean can win in New Hampshire next week. He's gotta chill out, stick to issues, and stay positive.

Then there's electability. Kerry took the top spot because he's more electable.

What a crock.

John Kerry is one of those Kennedy-like, limousine liberals that Republicans are always complaining about. He cannot beat Bush.

I also disagree with him on several issues. Here's an example of my preferred Dean position to the Kerry position:

Q [to Kerry]: You have accused Gov. Dean of playing on workers' fears and advocating protectionism and saying that under him it threatens to throw the economy into a tail spin. It that fair?

KERRY: Yes, it is fair, because Gov. Dean has said very specifically that we should not trade with countries until they have labor and environment standards that are equal to the US. That means we would trade with no countries. It is a policy for shutting the door. It's either a policy for shutting the door, if you believe it, or it's a policy of just telling people what they want to hear.

DEAN: I supported NAFTA, I supported the WTO. We benefited in Vermont from trade. But in the Midwest, our manufacturing jobs are hemorrhaging. We have to go back and revise every single trade agreement that we have to include labor standards, environmental standards & human rights standards. If we don't, the trade policy that we seek to help globalize and help workers around the country & the world is going to fail.

Well, Mr. Kerry, if you're so damn liberal, why do you favor free trade over human rights? I like buying cheap plastic shit at Wal-Mart, too, but if no one in the US is employed to buy said cheap plastic shit, then what's the point?

One of the criticisms during the Gore/Bush race was that they were too similar, as was argued in that Michael Moore-directed Rage Against the Machine video. Granted, we now know that was wrong. However, with a moderately popular president and with the media skewing towards the right more and more, we need a candidate to balance it all out, and the only one who has the energy and drive to do it is Dean. Kerry is just another 2000 Al Gore, meaning Kerry would lose bigger than Gore lost, and Gore didn't really lose all that much.

So don't give me that Kerry electability crap. It's bullshit.

Edwards' electability is perhaps better. His two-Americas message is pretty convincing. He's from the South. And he's cute. I think Edwards is more of a running mate than a President right now, and his strong showing in Iowa will affect that.

As for New Hampshire, we simply have to wait and see how the week goes. Besides, I'm not going to worry about New Hampshire for the next 24 hours. I've got hard drinking to do tonight.