Blogging will be light for Arlo today. I have the day off from work and am at home with a dial-up connection, and I'm doing homework. Not that I spend all day at work blogging. I work pretty hard at my job... so I have more time to blog.

I know we're all eagerly anticipating the Iowa Caucus results. I'm keeping a level head about the whole thing. George Bush the First beat Ronald Reagan in the Iowa Caucus in 1980. In 1988, the Iowa Caucus chose Bob Dole and Dick Gephardt. Tom Harkin won the 1992 Iowa Caucus, but he's from Iowa. (source)

The importance of the Caucus on the national scale this year is not to see who is going to become the nominee but to see who will say in the race and be strong in New Hampshire. Clark isn't even competing in Iowa, and I agree with the argument from several pundits that the Edwards and Kerry surges in Iowa would be Clark's surges if he were there.

The only thing worth looking for from the Iowa Caucus is to see who is going to drop out and endorse someone. So here come my predictions:

Kerry will win tonight (though I won't be surprised if Dean pulls it out). Dean will come in a very close second. In fact, the top three will be very close: Kerry, Dean, Gephardt. However, with Gephardt in third, his campaign will be damaged.

Iowa will have little impact on New Hampshire except give a small boost to Kerry. Dean will still win New Hampshire.

After the Iowa Caucus, Kucinich will drop out and endorse Dean. After New Hampshire that Joe Lieberman will drop out; he may not endorse anyone, but if he does, it'll be Kerry. Edwards won't drop out until he loses South Carolina (and he will). I think Edwards may actually endorse Clark...

My prediction that it'll be a Dean/Clark ticket seems pie-in-the-sky now. If Dean gets the nomination, he'll ask Clark, and Clark will probably say no. My money for a Dean running mate is now on Tom Harkin.

If Clark gets the nomination, he'll probably ask Edwards. Two southerners would be a huge boon to the Democrats in November.

And Al Sharpton will continue to be entertaining until the convention.

That's it. I'm going to put the Magic 8-Ball down now.